Paper ID:
IJSDIP_September 2024_VOLUME 12_ISSUE 3_111-116
Author's Name:
Dr.N Sridhar, Dr Y Raghunatha Reddy, Dr Gunda Surendra
Volume:
12
Issue:
Issue 3
Year:
2024
Pages:
111-116
Abstract
This study compares the interaction of inflation, unemployment, and output stability in Brazil, China, and India during 2019-2024. Annual consumer-price inflation, modelled unemployment, and real GDP growth are drawn from World Development Indicators. Economic stability is evaluated through growth volatility and an author-constructed Stability Burden Index equal to mean inflation plus mean unemployment plus the standard deviation of real GDP growth. China records the lowest burden (8.40), followed by India (16.69) and Brazil (18.89). In pooled estimates, a one-percentage-point rise in inflation is associated with 0.502 percentage points higher unemployment (p = 0.050); after country effects and a 2020-2021 pandemic indicator are included, the coefficient becomes -0.082 and statistically insignificant (p = 0.771). Inflation is also not independently associated with absolute growth deviation in the adjusted model (coefficient 0.060; p = 0.847). The evidence therefore rejects a uniform short-run inflation-unemployment trade-off across the selected economies and emphasises country structure, policy credibility, labour-market institutions, and common shocks.
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